03
2019
-
12
[Industry observation] From a macro perspective, the current form of wire drawing
Author:
[Introduction] The development and change of a thing can not be separated from its environment, so can the drawing material; While we grasp the daily rise and fall of the market, we may have different gains by analyzing the macro aspects of wire drawing materials, so as to prevent accidents.
![[Industry observation] From a macro perspective, the current form of wire drawing](/npublic/img/s.png "[Industry observation] From a macro perspective, the current form of wire drawing")
[Introduction] The development and change of a thing can not be separated from its environment, so can the drawing material; While we grasp the daily rise and fall of the market, we may have different gains by analyzing the macro aspects of wire drawing materials, so as to prevent accidents.
Demand.
The overall change of steel inventory this week, according to statistics, the social inventory of rebar decreased by 522700 tons this week, and the inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 301000 tons; The social stock of wire rod decreased by 160800 tons; The inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 77400 tons; The social stock of plates decreased by 55600 tons; The inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 17100 tons; The social inventory of cold-rolled coil decreased by 11000 tons, and the inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 7200 tons; The social inventory of hot rolled coil decreased by 112200 tons; The stock of steel mills decreased by 16400 tons, and the overall social stock of steel decreased by 1281400 tons. This is the fifth consecutive week since March 15 when the total steel inventory fell. The decline of total steel inventory indicates that demand has started. With the start of demand, the price has rebounded, but the increase is not strong, and the range is about 100 yuan. The main reason is that the price rebound caused by the expansion of demand is suppressed due to the large accumulation of inventory in the early stage.
Recently, relevant departments released the consumer consumption index and production price index for March. According to statistics, China's CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in March, expected to be 2.6%, and the previous value was 2.9%; PPI was 3.1% year-on-year, expected to be 3.3%, and the previous value was 3.7%. The values are lower. The latest data released by the China Automobile Association on the 11th showed that the automobile production and sales showed a rapid growth in March, with a slightly lower year-on-year growth. In March, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.628 million and 2.656 million respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 54.1% and 54.7% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and 4.7% respectively. In January-March, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 7.022 million and 7.183 million, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%. The decline was slightly narrower than that of the previous two months. The sales volume increased by 2.8% and the growth rate increased. These data show that basically speaking, the consumption level of Chinese residents has been in the process of benign development and steady growth; When it comes to the demand for steel, we should not be too short or too optimistic.
On the supply side.
With the end of production restriction, steel enterprises gradually resumed normal production. The operating rate data is the latest, and the sample is the mainstream steel production enterprises. There are 541 blast furnaces in the national mainstream steel production enterprises, with a total volume of 573821m ³， Starting volume 516526m ³， The volume operating rate is 90.02%; There are 280 deformed steel rolling lines in total, and the operating rate of the rolling line is 80.71%, of which 40 are under maintenance, and 14 are suspended. It is estimated that the possibility of production suspension and resumption is low; There are 234 wire rod rolling lines in total, and the operating rate of the rolling line is 74.36%, of which 42 are under maintenance, 15 are suspended, and 3 are transferred. It is estimated that the possibility of resumption of production of the production line is low. At the same time, it should be noted that the maintenance of steel enterprises in April is expected to increase, mainly because during the Spring Festival, some steel enterprises are overloaded and have to carry out maintenance, which will affect the supply of steel production, but it is estimated that the impact is not significant.
Phase snails. The general trend of black thread in 18 years is for reference only. 1、 If the demand for gold, silver and silver is started and still cannot move the market, then it is more likely that the market will continue to play down in the near future; By July and August, there will be a large wave of mid-line rise, but the probability of a new high is relatively small; 2、 In April, with the release of demand, there was a wave of 200 to 300 rebound, and then continued to decline. Driven by the wave of spot market of gold, silver and silver, there was another wave of mid-line rebound.
Policy. This year is the third year of the supply-side reform, and the marginal benefits brought by the policy dividend have significantly weakened.
To sum up, April is still a time to look forward to, and the demand is greatly increased, which is an indisputable fact, which will form a strong support for prices. However, as the fundamentals are not awesome, the rise may experience twists and turns. In terms of operation, it is suggested that short-term operation is the main method and bagging is safety.
Demand.
The overall change of steel inventory this week, according to statistics, the social inventory of rebar decreased by 522700 tons this week, and the inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 301000 tons; The social stock of wire rod decreased by 160800 tons; The inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 77400 tons; The social stock of plates decreased by 55600 tons; The inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 17100 tons; The social inventory of cold-rolled coil decreased by 11000 tons, and the inventory of steel enterprises decreased by 7200 tons; The social inventory of hot rolled coil decreased by 112200 tons; The stock of steel mills decreased by 16400 tons, and the overall social stock of steel decreased by 1281400 tons. This is the fifth consecutive week since March 15 when the total steel inventory fell. The decline of total steel inventory indicates that demand has started. With the start of demand, the price has rebounded, but the increase is not strong, and the range is about 100 yuan. The main reason is that the price rebound caused by the expansion of demand is suppressed due to the large accumulation of inventory in the early stage.
Recently, relevant departments released the consumer consumption index and production price index for March. According to statistics, China's CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in March, expected to be 2.6%, and the previous value was 2.9%; PPI was 3.1% year-on-year, expected to be 3.3%, and the previous value was 3.7%. The values are lower. The latest data released by the China Automobile Association on the 11th showed that the automobile production and sales showed a rapid growth in March, with a slightly lower year-on-year growth. In March, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.628 million and 2.656 million respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 54.1% and 54.7% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and 4.7% respectively. In January-March, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 7.022 million and 7.183 million, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%. The decline was slightly narrower than that of the previous two months. The sales volume increased by 2.8% and the growth rate increased. These data show that basically speaking, the consumption level of Chinese residents has been in the process of benign development and steady growth; When it comes to the demand for steel, we should not be too short or too optimistic.
On the supply side.
With the end of production restriction, steel enterprises gradually resumed normal production. The operating rate data is the latest, and the sample is the mainstream steel production enterprises. There are 541 blast furnaces in the national mainstream steel production enterprises, with a total volume of 573821m ³， Starting volume 516526m ³， The volume operating rate is 90.02%; There are 280 deformed steel rolling lines in total, and the operating rate of the rolling line is 80.71%, of which 40 are under maintenance, and 14 are suspended. It is estimated that the possibility of production suspension and resumption is low; There are 234 wire rod rolling lines in total, and the operating rate of the rolling line is 74.36%, of which 42 are under maintenance, 15 are suspended, and 3 are transferred. It is estimated that the possibility of resumption of production of the production line is low. At the same time, it should be noted that the maintenance of steel enterprises in April is expected to increase, mainly because during the Spring Festival, some steel enterprises are overloaded and have to carry out maintenance, which will affect the supply of steel production, but it is estimated that the impact is not significant.
Phase snails. The general trend of black thread in 18 years is for reference only. 1、 If the demand for gold, silver and silver is started and still cannot move the market, then it is more likely that the market will continue to play down in the near future; By July and August, there will be a large wave of mid-line rise, but the probability of a new high is relatively small; 2、 In April, with the release of demand, there was a wave of 200 to 300 rebound, and then continued to decline. Driven by the wave of spot market of gold, silver and silver, there was another wave of mid-line rebound.
Policy. This year is the third year of the supply-side reform, and the marginal benefits brought by the policy dividend have significantly weakened.
To sum up, April is still a time to look forward to, and the demand is greatly increased, which is an indisputable fact, which will form a strong support for prices. However, as the fundamentals are not awesome, the rise may experience twists and turns. In terms of operation, it is suggested that short-term operation is the main method and bagging is safety.
